There is a saying that I’m sure we’ve all heard before: “you’re comparing apples and oranges!” People like to break out this phrase whenever they catch someone trying to compare two things that are not comparable. Windows 8 and Windows 7 are like apples and oranges. They were made by the same company, and even share a name, but they are very different products that have arrived in very different situations. Analysts keep trying to compare adoption rates of these two products to see which one was more “successful,” and usually to claim that Windows 8 has failed. Not only is it too early to make that claim, but it’s based on a false comparison.
Adoption rates measure how much a new product is being used during its launch period. The problem with adoption rates is they don’t take into advantage the situation that existed when a product launched. Back when Windows 7 was released the previous version was Vista. Vista was one of Microsoft’s most complained about and despised products to date. It eventually was updated to be a much better product, but the damage had already been done. Vista was hated by a lot of users. Windows 7 adoption rates skyrocketed because people couldn’t wait to ditch Vista.
Now let’s look at the situation for the Windows 8 launch. Windows 7 was thought by many to be there best product yet. All the people that couldn’t wait to get away from Vista discovered that Windows 7 was actually really good. Still to this day people love Windows 7. If Windows XP has taught us anything it’s that Windows users will stick to something for as long as they can if they like it. For Windows 8 this isn’t a great situation to be released into. Most people who use Windows 7 don’t have any reason to stop. It doesn’t mean that Windows 8 is bad, it just means Windows 7 is that good.
As you can see it makes perfect sense why the adoption rates are so different. Of course people will adopt something new when the product they are currently using sucks. Of course people will be more hesitant to try something new when there is nothing wrong with what they currently use. This has been the battle Microsoft has had to fight with Windows 8. It’s not about convincing people that Windows 8 is good, it’s about convincing people that it’s worth switching away from Windows 7. Microsoft tried to do this by making the pricing much more affordable, and they tried it by giving incentives to new Windows 7 users.
You can say that Windows 8 has not been as successful as Windows 7, but you have to think about the different situations. Eventually Windows 8 will be the most used version of Windows, but with such a great previous version you can’t expect everyone to jump on it immediately. You can’t compare apples and oranges.